The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) are scheduled to come out this morning. 8:30 is the time that is infamous for making and losing fortunes as speculators guess on the direction of the virtually guaranteed increase in volatility.
Like any other morning, the Twitter community is claiming that THIS TIME, is the deciding factor in the overall markets, this lone morning holds the key to the next years action, or at least the next couple months.
I tend to disagree. The market reacts to this expected event, not because of the number itself but because of the expected outcome of the number. The way I see it, the anticipation of the releasing of the number is what creates the excitement and consequently the increase in volatility. It is a self-fulling prophecy, not a direct correlation to the number and movement.
The stock market of course is in a precarious spot (but when is it not?). The NFP is likely going to move market in one direction or another (but doesn’t the market ‘move’?). The gamblers will call the number important to the long-term success of the market (but can you point out the last NFP by looking at a chart?).
The NFP will always be around and will always create a little excitement in the traders that do not trade on a sound process. When back-testing a strategy, did it include the NFP days as ‘special’ or take into consideration the expected number before the release? Nope, therefore nor should you as a speculator. The only actionable activity that is necessary for a speculator like you and I is to remain steadfast in our approach and true to our rules.