Market Orientation & Bias: Neutral Positioning, Bearish outlook 

1. Recap of Last Week

Last Week’s Post: The Week Ahead Outline, Strategy & Set Ups 3-29-14

POST FROM FRIDAY: “What The NFP Means For The Stock Market (& Your Process)

A. General Recap

This is what we wrote last week heading into this past week regarding the health of the market and strategy for trades:

As for a strategy for the next week, it is going to be hard to implement our core strategy with great effectiveness. This strategy is swinging strong stocks that are breaking out to new highs in a healthy fashion. We have not seen much of this lately thus we will have a cautious mindsight until a trend changes and the QUALITY and set ups return.

 

Strategy: Do nothing until HIGH QUALITY set ups return to the market. Do not look at the indices for guidance, they simply lag the quality of set ups that are already in the market.

This was the case this past week as we did more of nothing and the lack of quality set ups without a doubt continued throughout the week, finally coming to fruition with a nasty candle on Friday.

B. Past Set Up Recap

There were NO strong set ups last week that we listed.

2. Strategy For Next Week

A. General Broad Market Thoughts

Many times I likely sound like a broken record, repeating the same things over and over again. I would not be surprised at all if you would get bored of this, I likely would. However, as we both know, repetition is key to learning. Therefore, whether you like it or not the repetition is here to stay. I am here to TEACH and LEARN, not sugar coat.

The quality of set ups is still lacking. I scanned through 600+ charts this weekend, and out of those 600+, none made it onto the watchlist for swing trades. This without a doubt says something about the health of the market and it is not good. I look to swing trade the HIGH quality set ups and when they are not here, it is important NOT to force them and simply accept the fact that it is important to do NOTHING.

B. Video Analysis & Watchlist

 

C.  Set Ups & Charts Watchlist

None of interest to the long side. Likely some short set ups will appear over the next couple days as the market consolidates lower next week (likely) and then breaks down again (likely).

3. Current Positions

$RMBS (half) long – Been long since 3/7, only a half of the position left – just letting it ride.

$SBUX (half) short – Been short since 4/3, only half of the position left – letting it ride versus 74.00

4. General Tips & Reminders

Remain steadfast in your approach during this trying times.

Fight the temptation to trade, it will pass. 

Be PATIENT and LEARN.

 

Have a great rest of the weekend. Email or Tweet me with any questions or comments. 

The purpose of the Week Ahead post is to prepare you for the upcoming week in the markets. I do this not only to help others learn and develop trading skills but also to develop and cultivate my personal thoughts for the Week Ahead. Below you will find a written commentary portion followed by a Video Analysis the stock market and the set ups I am watching this upcoming week. This post is organized into sections, see bold titles and skip the items in which you are not interested in! Enjoy!

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The Week Ahead Outline, Strategy & Set Ups 4-5-14