Last year I came out with a post about my 2013 Investment ideas which were essentially just long-term trades ideas. Many people believe that trading can only be done and is only done on a shorter-term basis. Perhaps this is because the majority of people that are frequently speaking of trading are shorter-term traders. Regardless, the same pattern and/or trend that presents itself on the 5 minute timeframe will also be present on the weekly or monthly timeframe given enough time and patience.
Last year I scanned through several hundred charts and came up with some of my favorite 2013 trades, which were called investments just because of the different time horizon of the ‘trade’.
With 2013 coming to a quick end (Christmas less than a week away, where did the time go?), I have begun to prepare my 2014 Trade/Investments but before I share them (on a future post), I thought it would be wise to do a review of my 2013 Investments.
Overall, an average return all the ‘2013 Investments’ came to 39.315% or about 10% better than the $SPY in the same timeframe. I am very pleased with this number but it is not my goal, as a trader I have grown greatly in the past year and I am excited to do even better in 2014.
Before I share the individual results of each of the 2013 investments, here is a a link to the article from December 2012 listing the 2013 investments – http://www.bencbanks.com/2013investments/
The following is a review of all the stocks from the 2013 investments, the first chart you will see is the one I posted last December and the following one is the present day chart. Some charts are weekly and some are monthly, click to enlarge them.
$BA – +79.84%
Bank of America (my hometown company), had an amazing year. Along with the other banks, it greatly outperformed which without a doubt helped the performance of the overall portfolio. I think it will continue to do well into 2014, though I doubt it will make the cut to be on the new list.
Citigroup, another bank that outperformed this year, but this one ever so narrowly. Similar to $BAC, I doubt it will make the 2014 list but overall, a constructive looking weekly chart heading into 2014, I just don’t think we will see a copy of 2013 in 2014. We shall see.
$DE – +2.45%
Deere just barely made it into the green this year with the help of a weekly breakout in the past couple of weeks. Deere, consequently, is the worst performing stock on our 2013 list. However, it looks interesting heading into 2014, it is on watch for the new list.
$GLD – +29.89 (to the short side)
$GLD was our only short trade of 2013. I’m sure people thought and would have called me an idiot for saying GOLD would be a bad investment choice for 2013 last year if they had seen it, especially from the ‘Gold Bugs’. However, it is a good thing that I follow price and could remove myself from the monetary policy attached to this instrument. Heading into 2014, it still looking bad but I would not short it here, it does look to be heading to 1000 (100 on GLD) though.
$HOT – +35.64%
StarWood Hotels was a decent performer this past year but only recently woke up in 2013. It did not meet my 2013 expectations but still did alright. Heading into 2014 it still looks good but very hard to chase at these prices, not entry.
$JNJ – +33.91%
Johnson & Johnson did amazing, especially considering how low-beta this stock truly is. Does anyone remember the start of the year when it was up something like 18 weeks in a row? That was crazy. I loved this set up because of the decade long base it had formed, ‘the bigger the base, the higher in space’ as they like to say.
$MS – + 61%
Morgan Stanley, yet another bank that had a stellar performance in 2013 and one of the top performing stocks in the portfolio. Heading into 2014 it is coming into some major resistance, it will not make a reappearance on the new list (does not mean it is a sell though).
$NUE – +18.69%
Nuecor, another company local to where I live, this one however underperformed as the steel industry lagged most of the year. I still like this set up and I would place high odds on it making another appearance in the 2014 list. We shall see.
$SPY – +29% (approximately)
I did do a $SPY prediction for 2013, I had a 1650 target on it and as you already likely know, it greatly surpassed this number. I do not think it is wise to enter $SPY here from a longer term point of view and I will likely not have it on my 2014 investment list.
$XHB – +17.39%
The homebuilders (ETF) greatly underperformed in 2013, frustrating many as they chopped around. They still look interesting on the weekly timeframe and may make the 2014 list because of this, but then again there is alot of competition this year.
$YHOO – +107.87%
Yahoo! was the best performer of the 2013 investment list, the only triple digit win. I am very pleased with this stock and the reason why it was on the list in the first place, was again, the long base it had formed in the years prior. It will not be on the 2014 investment list, trim and trail, it does not mean it is a sell.
Ford Motor Company did OK this year. I really thought the car companies could do better than this but unfortunately they have disappointed. However, even with the major weakness the past couple of weeks in Ford, it still managed to squeeze out about a 20.5% gain for 2013. Will not be on 2014 investment list.
$MON – +20.32%
Monsanto, an agricultural stock that had a very nice long term base that appeared poised to have a great 2013 disappointed a little. It still looks OK heading into 2014 but will not be on the new list.
And that is ALL. 14 stocks ending with an average of a 39.315% gain for 2013. Hope to see you back here to see the 2014 investment ideas sometime in the next week or so. As always, if you have any questions, feel free to shoot me an email or Tweet at me (@BenCBanks).