I haven’t been blogging as much this year as years previously, I think that this is due in part because of the overall market condition this year.
This year $SPY is down just under 1% for the year, much different than the (likely) close to 10% it was up at this time last year. Look at the chart of SPY and it will quickly become evident that the market is consolidating this year – up then down, down then up. This leaves me, as a momentum swing trader, in a tricky spot. Rarely do I get much traction in my trades given this condition. Rarely are there stocks that are tight and poised to breakout higher. Often I find stocks that are inside huge consolidation bases and not really doing much in terms of trends, just a ping-pong of price action.
For someone like myself and for everyone in the market, this is likely rather frustrating. Most people make money on trends, up or down, and when there are no trends, then making money becomes a little more difficult. This year, so far, has humbled me and made me realize that my strategy, while good and robust, is far from absent from the providence of the overall market – I am also affected, positively or negatively by the market conditions, we all are.
Over the past month or so, I have been thinking about how I can broaden my strategy to incorporate other trading techniques, namely, trend following (long-term) and short term range bound trading (buying support), I am still pondering how I would trade these strategies and make them congruent to my comfort, but the more I think about it, the more I feel as if that’s the way I need to go with my trading, to grow and continue to learn. To some extent, I have mastered the Coghill Flag (my own pattern technique) and now I need to move on and find some new strategies.
Should be an interesting time, and I am glad you – being my reader and fellow trader – are along for the experience with me. Thanks for listening to this out-loud thought and I look forward to sharing how I am doing down the road. As always, if you want to talk further or have any questions, feel free to message me and I will do my best to get back to you quickly.